Everyone Likes Google!!

On 4/14/07, I posted an article titled "Everyone Will Be Talking About Google!," in which I discussed a possible "bullish earnings reaction" pattern based on the earnings seasons in the past 3 years. Now, that Google has delivered "excellent" earnings, let's see how much everyone "likes" Google (GOOG)!

In AH, GOOG traded as high as 495+, but, settled at 486.8, up 15.15. I think this is not the proper response! With a report card like today's (3.68/share), which beats the "highest" estimate (3.52) by .16 (the average was 3.31; a beat of .37!), GOOG should be above 500 already! If GOOG doesn't go above 500 after this kind of earnings, I'd ask "When will it?" and "How will it?"

***If you want to read the rest of the post, please click here to go to Wang's World!

4/18/07 Review: Nasdaq, DOW, SPX, SOX, OIH, GLD, GOOG, EBAY, JPM

Hello! It’s “Wang’s World”, HappyTrading’s new home!! What an auspicous day it is to have my first post here on a day that the DOW makes a new, all-time, high!! Woohoo! Wang’s World, Wang’s World, money time, happy time!! =) Ok, had to do a little impersonation; I promise I will “tryyyyy” to “behaaaave”!

Thanks to Phil Davis for inviting me to blog with him on PSW! And, hello to Sage, Zman; and many thanks to Jared!

Ok, where do we start? Oh, yes, the DOW!
New all-time high, just climbing the upper BB! (Why do I keep on hearing Mike Myer’s voice saying what I’m typing?!) It is above 12800 boys and girls! SPX, the SP 500 index, shares the same qualities as DOW’s charts, “just climbing the upper BB”.

Nasdaq had a little more difficult time today, even though the SOX took off! IBM and YHOO may have something to do with it...

***If you want to read the rest of the post, please click here to go to Wang's World!

Everyone will be talking about Google!!

After the markets closed on Friday, Google, GOOG, announced that it will acquire DoubleClick for $3.1B in an all-cash deal! This piece of news makes things lots more interesting because GOOG is reporting earnings on Thursday, 4/19. Let's take a look at some charts to see if we can find some clues as to how GOOG will trade in the coming week.

GOOG's daily chart:
This is a bit difficult to extract information from. The positive thing that I see here is that the daily MAs are moving up, with the 10- above 20- above the 30-day MA. And, GOOG managed to close right above the 10-day MA. It would be interesting to see how GOOG moves with the "DoubleClick" news early next week before the earnings report.

GOOG's weekly chart: GOOG's weekly chart shows that it has been rising and creating higher highs and higher lows for the past 5 weeks; and, the MACD, MFI, and RSI are recovering!

So, overall, GOOG seems to have a bullish bias right now. Let's take a look at GOOG's past earning seasons and see if we can find some more clues!

Since August 2004, there have been 5 instances where GOOG jumped after its earnings. Let's zoom in and take a look at each one.

Case #1: Oct 20041) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.

2) MACD is flat with room to go up.

Case #2 Apr 2005:1) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat with room to go up.

Case #3 Oct 2005:

1) GOOG has its MAs intermingled, trying to sort out directions before earnings, with 30-day MA heading slightly up

2) MACD flat with room to go up

Case #4 Oct 2006:

1) GOOG is just below the 10-day MA with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat with room to go up.

Case #5 APR 2006:
I pulled this on out of the cronological order, as a special case, because although it did jump right after the earnings, but, it didn't continue further. Let's analyze its characteristics:

1) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat, but with little room to go up.

So, what's my conclusion about the pattern of favorable earnings reaction on GOOG, if there's a pattern to find?

1) We're looking for the daily MAs to show a bullish trend, most desirably with 10- above 20- above 30-day MA

2) If GOOG does jump, in order for it to continue to go up after the earnings has come out, the MACD needs to show room to go up, preferably flat with slightly up indication before the earnings.

Now, what do we have presently? We already know that GOOG shows a bullish bias from the studies of both daily and weekly charts. But, does the present situation show the characteristics of a possible, bullish reaction to earnings?

1) GOOG sits above all the daily MAs before the earnings with the MAs in bullish formation: 10- above 20- above 30-day MA.
2) MACD is flat with room to go up
Here's the present 6-months chart to show that MACD has lots of room to go up still!

So, I think the present situation shows that we have a pretty good chance to see bullish reaction to GOOG's earnings this week. Also, a sharp observer might have noticed that all the bullish earning seasons are in April and October, and, every April and October has brought jumps in GOOG's stock the day after earnings! Now, it's April! We'll have to see how GOOG trades in the days preceding the earnings report and see if the "bullish-earnings-reaction" characteristics hold up before the report comes out.

Happy trading!

4/9/07 Review: Nasdaq, OIH, GLD, AAPL, GOOG

The markets could not quite decide which way to go today. The SP 500 still managed to close green, but, the Nasdaq and the SOX had a little tougher time. So, what do the charts say?

The charts for the major indices still resemble each other, more or less. Let's take a look at the Nasdaq: Nasdaq was able to make a higher high, but, wasn't able to to hold it. We need very much to get that 30-day MA turned up. It would probably take more than a few consecutive strong up days to make that happen. Nasdaq needs to catch that upper BB and ride along it.

We should have taken a look at the weekly charts this weekend. Let's do it now: Nasdaq shows that it made a nice gain last week. Both MACD and RSI have started to turn up. So, the bias is still on the long side. Let's see if the trend can continue this week.

Gold also made a nice gain last week. GLD's weekly chart looks really nice, with higher highs and higher lows. The MACD has started to go up again! The uptrend is still intact, but, it is getting a bit toppy.

The oils also made good gains last week. Similar story as gold, but, even a little more toppy. OIH made it all the way to 151.41 today, which almost touched the upper BB on the weekly chart. It might make another attempt sometime this week.

In order for the major indices to keep on going and re-test the February highs, they need to make a few sessions with solid gains. They all need to catch up to their respective upper BBs and turn their 30-day MAs up! And, SOX needs to participate in the big rallies to break out of their multi-year range. Gold, and rest of the metals, still seem strong. The oils, represented by OIH, may be getting toppy, but, the monthly chart is still bullish.

4/3/07 Review: Nasdaq, DOW, SP 500, GOOG, RIMM

It was a very nice day for the markets!! The DOW closed above 12500; Nasdaq closed above 2450; and, SPX, or the SP 500, added more than 13 points! The major indices are ready to break some immediate resistance and perhaps retest the highs reached in February. SOX added more than 3, and, we definitely need to see the semiconductors rally more! SOX needs to break out of the range that it's been stuck in for years, shown in my entry on 3/31/07.

So, let's take a look at some charts and see where we stand: Nasdaq came near the immediate resistance at around 2457. It needs to break that and catch up with the upper BB. The MACD and RSI turned up nicely. We still want to see that 30-day MA turn up!

Let's see what the intraday chart is saying: The intraday indicators show that there is still some more room to go up! Let's see if we have enough momentum to break through that resistance around 2457. (The other major indices show similar near-term patterns.)

GOOG, with an announcement of a satellite TV ad deal with EchoStar, had a great day, which probably helped spark the market rally also!.

GOOG caught the upper BB today and is ready to ride it up! MACD, RSI, MFI all turned up, and the buying volume was high!

RIMM had a similar day as GOOG, and it is reporting on 4/11. RIMM also caught up with its upper BB with technical indicators going up nicely!

So, tomorrow, we'll need to see the major indices break their immediate resistance levels. Then, we can hope to retest the highs set in February!

3/26/07 Review: Nasdaq, SPX, SOX, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM

It was a nice day for the markets. We survived the new housing data and the bulls rallied Nasdaq all the way to finish green! This showed that there's a lot of money standing on the sideline, ready to come in.

The Nasdaq closed right at resistance. It needs to catch the upper BB and start turning it up. Similar charts exist for other major indices, for example, SPX.
I'd really like to see a strong rally in the techs tomorrow and push the upper BB up and open. This should also start to turn that 20-day MA.

The SOX basically had a flat day. Nice come back, though. Still waiting to see if the tailend of the "W" pattern would take off. The MACD is going up nicely, but, we really, really, need to see the MAs turn up! If the SOX rallies tomorrow, the markets should be pretty strong.

GOOG had another nice day. It closed right at the resistance and have caught the upper BB, which opened up the door for a big rally tomorrow. The MAs are behaving nicely: 10-day MA has has crossed above the 20-day MA; the 20-day MA is flattening; and, the 30-day MA has already turned up. All great signs!

AAPL had another strong day. It's been riding the upper BB for days. Today, it sailed right past the resistance at 95. Although it might be starting to look a bit toppy, the strong volume today and the fact that 52-wk high is not that far away, I think AAPL can still continue this run.

RIMM had a strong day today. I've been patiently waiting for RIMM to sort out this resistance at 137 (see post on 3/22/07). It dropped below 137 in the morning and created much more room on its intraday charts. When the market rallied, so did RIMM. When it went above 137 again, I thought it could be time for it to break out.
RIMM closed basically at 139, well above 137. The upper BB is very close. At about 140, it would have caught the upper BB and gone past the only major resistance left. The MACD has just turned positive. So, with a little more push, we might see RIMM at new highs very soon.

So, a very good day overall, and, if we get a strong rally tomorrow, the major indices would probably all catch the upper BB and be in the breakout mode. We certainly need the SOX to have a strong day. If the SOX starts to rally early, it would be a good sign!

New Home Sales Affecting Markets: GOOG, AAPL, SOX

New home sales data is holding the markets captive, at least for now. SOX really needs to come back up to inspire the markets. GOOG and AAPL are holding up well. Now that the intraday charts show a lot more room above, let's see if the bulls can get something going in the late afternoon.

For the major indices, the upper BBs are within reach, and are also acting as barriers. If the markets get going in the afternoon, they might just catch the upper BBs and start to push it up. We'll need to see some strong buying.

3/24/2007 Weekend Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, GOOG

What a week for the markets!! S&P 500 scores its best week since 2003! Let's take a look:

Nasdaq on Friday was very choppy. The ticker actually showed 4+ points in the green at the close. I even called Fidelity to make sure that was correct because seconds before the close, it was in the red. The Fidelity's representative confirmed that it "seemed" correct. But, an hour, or so, later, "after" the close, Nasdaq showed -2 points. That, was very strange! But, let's not fuss with it and call it a "flat" day.
In any case, Nasdaq did quite well for the week. The 10-day MA is above the 20-day MA, and, the 20-day MA is flattening. We still need to close above 2456. The upper BB is very close now; would like to see it start to curve up, or at least flattening. If Nasdaq catches the upper BB, it can go into breakout mode and push the upper BB wide open.

The S&P 500 shows a similar chart as the Nasdaq, but, the upper BB is much closer. Breaking 1438 would likely allow it to catch the upper BB and run!

The SOX is an essential part of the rally. It has to participate, if not lead. The BBs are narrowing in now and I would very much like to see the 20-day MA turn up. An interesting thing that I noticed is the period between around 10/16-11/10/2006. The situation is almost identical to the one it is in now:
First, it starts with reaching a high, going above the upper BB. Then, it is followed with a sharp downturn. Then, a bounce, but, fails, only to be followed by a sharp rise that creates a W. And, the tailend of the W catches the upper BB with enough momentum to create new highs! Both times, we see the BBs closing in before the tailend of the W makes a powerful jump and taks off! The history is likely to repeat itself. Next Monday and Tuesday will give us good clues.

GOOG finished a nice strong week. It did close between 460-465, which is quite "goog", or good! =) The lower volume on a flat day is a good thing. I would like to see that 20-day MA start to turn up! We'll need a strong day on Monday. Breaking 465, only some 3 points away, would basically allow GOOG to catch the upper BB and run. If that happens, the initial resistance is around 480.

Many analysts are looking for GOOG to go above 550, and perhaps even above 600; and, I "feel" that it will. But, it seems that every time GOOG hits 510, the sellers are there waiting. I think GOOG needs to finally get that split. Psychologically, 300 is a lot easier to handle than 600 for such a big company. April just might bring us the good news and people might already be gearing up for it!

So, the major indices are mostly in similar places:

1) They've all successfully tested the bottom twice.

2) They've all gone above the 10, 20, and 30-day MAs.

3) They all have the upper BB within reach.

If we get some strong follow-through rallies on Monday and Tuesday, we might just have enough momentum to hit new highs!

3/22/2007 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, GOOG, RIMM, telecoms, semi-conductors, metals, oils

We did pretty well today. The DOW managed to close green. As I pointed out last night, the intraday charts were toppy, and it did turn out to be a choppy day. Let's see where we are now:

The Nasdaq needs to manage to close above 2455; it would be a bullish note and would set up for the re-test of 2500! I would like to see the 20-day MA (yellow line) to start turning up. Notice the BB are closing in.

Let's take a look at the broader markets, SP 500:

The chart looks similar to that of the Nasdaq, but, the upper BB is much closer. If SPX manages to break 1438, it has a good chance to catch the upper BB and perhaps break out higher!

GOOG did very well today, up 5+ points!

GOOG closed above the 30-day MA today! Go Google!! I think it will test 465 tomorrow. The MACD is going up nicely and the volume is very good. The intraday charts (not shown) are still toppy. If GOOG can mange to close between 460-465, and allow the intraday charts to let off some steam, it would be very good. The upper BB is very close. If GOOG can take a little rest, and break higher next week, it may be able to catch the upper BB and run with it!

I wanted to take a look at RIMM because I think some bullish opportunities are shaping up! RIMM has been caught between 130-137 for a couple of weeks, but, it made some good advances today:

It tested 137 intraday, but, closed below it. The buying volume was nice, and the MACD and MFI are both curving up!
But, the intraday charts are toppy. I think if RIMM holds 135-137 while allowing the intraday charts to take a break, we may see good bullish opportunities next week. If RIMM re-tests 137 and is able to break it with strength, we may see new highs very soon!

So, we are at a place very similar to last night: the intraday charts are still toppy. We certainly need the telecoms and the semi-conductors to participate in the rallies. The metals and the oils, especially the oils, still look strong.

One important note is that, for most of the indices, the BBs are closing in on the daily chart. We may see a couple of more days of consolidation. But, the upper BBs are all pretty close. So, if the markets take a small rest and rally again, they may just catch the upper BBs and break higher!

3/21/2007 Review: Nasdaq, SMH, SOX, GOOG, AKAM, WFR, FFIV, RIMM, LVS, UNH

It was a great day!! Thanks Feds! Let the bulls run!! I tried to stay positive since I started this blog on Sunday 3/18, hoping that the Feds will help spark a broad-based rally. Or, maybe the bulls are just looking for an excuse to rally. A few days before the selloff at the end of February, I read an article somewhere (forgot where), which said that we needed a sharp, quick correction before going even higher. So, when the selloff came, and it came sharp and fast, I was convinced that we are going to bounce off and head for even higher grounds. Let's hope that this is what's ahead of us.

Let's take a look at Nasdaq:

Nasdaq closed above all 10, 20, and 30-day MAs. I would very much like to see the 20-day MA start to turn up. Nasdaq's MACD got a big jump up today! Nice!

We talked about the semi-conductors for the past few days and looked at SMH. SMH did well today, but, SOX did even better!

SOX's chart looks really good. It closed above all MAs, and the MAs are curving up! MACD turned positive and the upper BB has already opened up. We really need this sector and the telecoms to continue to rally to help boost Nasdaq up!


Last night, I was looking for GOOG to make a big jump and go above the MAs. It "almost" did that today.

GOOG closed right at the 30-day MA. The MACD turned positive and we have a pretty good up volume. Hopefully, it'll try to break 465 this week. If GOOG catches the upper BB, it can fly!

AKAM has been taking things slowly, and, it finally woke up today.Like GOOG, it also closed right at the 30-day MA. It needs to break 55 and catch the upper BB. MACD, MFI, RSI are all good; the best thing is the "big" volume today!

UNH has been toying with the resistance at around 54.1 for a long time. It finally broke out today!

UNH also caught the upper BB today, so, I think it'll go up more in the days to come! The volume was also good today.


Last night, when I looked at POT, I thought POT would try for 166 today. It did well, but, didn't quite make it to 166. Its MACD just turned positive and the upper BB is not too far away. Its intraday charts are a bit toppy. Hopefully, it will be able to hold the present gains and try to break 166 next week.

WFR went crazy today, toppying 61!! That's over 6 points and a 12% gain in 2 days! RIMM also made a jump today. FFIV has made a nice advance.

So, after a big day like this, many of the intraday charts are getting toppy. We might have some choppiness tomorrow. But, I hope the bulls will be able to pull out some follow-throughs. I'm looking for Nasdaq to test 2500 sometime next week. If the SOX runs with strength, it could easily catch the upper BB around 490 and break out!

3/20/2007 Review: Nasdaq, SMH, GOOG, WFR, POT, MGM, WYNN, LVS, GS, VIP, FFIV, ORCL, ADBE

Nasdaq did pretty well today. And, the semi-conductors and telecoms pitched in, which certainly helped. Little disappointed about GOOG, but, there were plenty of others to cheer about. Let's take a review with the charts:


Nasdaq looked good today. Last night, I was hoping see that it would close above 2400 and have its MACD turn positive. Both of which it did! And, as expected, it hit the 2410 20-day MA and took a rest there. This was good because we stayed green with good gains and saved room for a burst tomorrow. Let's hope the Feds have nice things to say that would arouse the big rally!!


I was hoping that the semi-conductors and the telecoms would join in today. They did!

SMH closed above the support today. And, we can see that the 10-day MA is still moving up. It is definitely better, but, we need to see a lot more from this sector. Let's hope that we'd get a broad rally tomorrow and that SMH (and the SOX) and retake their recent highs soon!


GOOG was a bit disppointing as it closed a bit in the red. If GOOG had rallied though, we might have gone too fast, for it might have inspired more buying today.

Now, I'm going to "choose" to focus on the good things again:
1) MFI is curing up
2) MACD went up, even though the stock was down a bit
3) the MAs are bunching up, if GOOG can get a big jump tomorrow and pass 458, it would clear all 10-, 20-, 30-day MAs!


I looked at POT last night and thought that if it gets above 156.8, it might make a move. And, it did!

POT managed to close above 158, up more than 4 points! It closed above all MAs, with the 10-day MA curving up. MACD, RSI, and MFI are all shaping up. So, if a rally comes tomorrow, we might have 166 look for!


GS was able to get some buying interests today.

It closed right at 204 today, above the 20-day MA and the 30-day MA is not that far away. MACD, MFI, RSI are looking up, with MACD being positive.


Now, the casino group made some good jumps today, with MGM up 4.2% and WYNN up 2.8%, but, LVS (normally, the strongest in the group) was only up 2%. So, I thought it might go up more and be the strongest tomorrow.

Its chart looks good. It closed above 20-day MA and touching the 30-day MA. The MACD had already turned positive and is moving up nicely. And, it had good buying volume today. So, let's hope the rally is there tomorrow and LVS would participate in a big way!

I will keep an eye on VIP and FFIV tomorrow also. VIP made a hugh move yesterday and backed off a little today. FFIV is looking ready to run with the pack! In after hours, ORCL and ADBE had good earnings news and both advanced. So, it's all waiting for the Feds. Hopefully, what they say will spark the market tomorrow and get a broad-market rally going!

Nasdaq/GOOG

Right at the 20-day MA, 2410. Be careful! If we're going to push through here, GOOG needs to turn green and rally up! Nasdaq's 30-day MA is around 2435.

Monday Night Review (GOOG, AAPL, Nasdaq, SMH, POT)

So, we've had a nice Monday rally. Let's see how things are looking:

Last night we looked at GOOG's chart, and saw that the 10-day MA was flattening. I thought that GOOG might make a move up today. And, it did!

GOOG's daily chart shows that the 10-day MA is curving up; a good sign. Also, MACD, MFI, and RSI are all going up. Would like to see higher buying volume tomorrow.

The intraday-hourly chart shows that the MFI still has room, so we could see 455 tomorrow, or higher, depends on how fast GOOG wants to move. If we get good news from the Feds on Wed, GOOG could blast through 465, which could really send it up!

AAPL's daily chart is picking up momentum. It made a little breakout today.

Nice up volume. The MAs are moving up well.

AAPL's intraday hourly chart shows that its MFI made some room for it to go up more tomorrow.

We didn't get a participation from the semi-conductor sector today. Let's take a look at the SMH:

It closed just below the support at 34. We really need to see some strength from this sector for the rally to continue.

Nasdaq did well today. We closed above the 10-day MA, which is curving up.

We need to watch out for the 20-day MA as an initial resistance. Hopefully, we can close between 2400-2425, tomorrow. If the Feds decide to be nice on Wed, Nasdaq needs to break 2440 and go above the MAs to continue the rally!

POT is a nice momentum stock. I'm watching it hoping that it will turn up and go into 170s again, soon:

The intraday hourly chart shows that if POT breaks 156.8, it might start to fly again. The stock is traveling along the 10-hour MA right now. I noticed that the MACD, MFI (bottom), and RSI are all turning up.

So, we've had a nice day for the bulls. As I thought last night, we'd get a rally today. Hopefully, we'll see it continue tomorrow. But, it really depends on what the Feds say on Wed. If they decided to be nice, the market sentiments should turn more positive.