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Wang's Happy Trading Daily Posts

Saturday, March 24, 2007

3/24/2007 Weekend Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, GOOG

What a week for the markets!! S&P 500 scores its best week since 2003! Let's take a look:

Nasdaq on Friday was very choppy. The ticker actually showed 4+ points in the green at the close. I even called Fidelity to make sure that was correct because seconds before the close, it was in the red. The Fidelity's representative confirmed that it "seemed" correct. But, an hour, or so, later, "after" the close, Nasdaq showed -2 points. That, was very strange! But, let's not fuss with it and call it a "flat" day.
In any case, Nasdaq did quite well for the week. The 10-day MA is above the 20-day MA, and, the 20-day MA is flattening. We still need to close above 2456. The upper BB is very close now; would like to see it start to curve up, or at least flattening. If Nasdaq catches the upper BB, it can go into breakout mode and push the upper BB wide open.

The S&P 500 shows a similar chart as the Nasdaq, but, the upper BB is much closer. Breaking 1438 would likely allow it to catch the upper BB and run!

The SOX is an essential part of the rally. It has to participate, if not lead. The BBs are narrowing in now and I would very much like to see the 20-day MA turn up. An interesting thing that I noticed is the period between around 10/16-11/10/2006. The situation is almost identical to the one it is in now:
First, it starts with reaching a high, going above the upper BB. Then, it is followed with a sharp downturn. Then, a bounce, but, fails, only to be followed by a sharp rise that creates a W. And, the tailend of the W catches the upper BB with enough momentum to create new highs! Both times, we see the BBs closing in before the tailend of the W makes a powerful jump and taks off! The history is likely to repeat itself. Next Monday and Tuesday will give us good clues.


GOOG finished a nice strong week. It did close between 460-465, which is quite "goog", or good! =) The lower volume on a flat day is a good thing. I would like to see that 20-day MA start to turn up! We'll need a strong day on Monday. Breaking 465, only some 3 points away, would basically allow GOOG to catch the upper BB and run. If that happens, the initial resistance is around 480.

Many analysts are looking for GOOG to go above 550, and perhaps even above 600; and, I "feel" that it will. But, it seems that every time GOOG hits 510, the sellers are there waiting. I think GOOG needs to finally get that split. Psychologically, 300 is a lot easier to handle than 600 for such a big company. April just might bring us the good news and people might already be gearing up for it!

So, the major indices are mostly in similar places:

1) They've all successfully tested the bottom twice.

2) They've all gone above the 10, 20, and 30-day MAs.

3) They all have the upper BB within reach.

If we get some strong follow-through rallies on Monday and Tuesday, we might just have enough momentum to hit new highs!

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