4/11/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, DOW

So, once again, the Feds spooked investors! =) The timing was about right, though. It's about time the markets take a little rest. Let's take a look to see where we are at:

The Nasdaq closed above support (2456.5) at 2459.31.
What's positive for today was that the 30-day MA finally turned up! We'll have to see now if the 10-day MA can act as a support, while the intraday charts work off some steam!

Nasdaq intraday: On the intraday chart, we can see that Nasdaq really hit the tops of this near-term cycle at the end of last week. It was able to sustain the levels as things started to cool off earlier this week; probably people wanted to wait and see what comes out of the Fed's minutes.

The DOW faired a little less well.
It closed below the support around 12500, but, it did bounce off of the 10-day MA. The SP 500 shows similar charts to Nasdaq.

Now, the test is to see how fast can the bulls regroup, whether the 10-day MA will be strong enough as a support, and, if it is, whether the indices can continue the uptrend to re-test the Feb highs.

4/10/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, GLD, OIH, AA

Markets had a good day today with the major indices all closed in the green. Even SOX, the semiconductors, had a good day!

Nasdaq, up 8.43, at 2477.61!
If we look closely, we can see that Nasdaq's 30-day MA is starting to flatten out. A few more consecutive up days should turn it up; but, we'll need to see some strong days, up 20-30 points, to catch up with the upper BB! The MACD and RSI are still rising nicely!

We can see the 30-day MA action more clearly from the SP 500, SPX: See the 30-day MA flattening?! SPX is almost back to the level before the sell-off. Breaking above this level, which is about 1450, should bring a test of the Feb high!

SOX had a strong day! It closed up 3.81, at 476.58. Its MACD just turned positive today. We should see some continued, upwards momentum tomorrow!

GLD, ETF tracking gold, also went up today. Looks like it's starting to move along the upper BB!

OIH, ETF for the oil service industry, made a new 6-months high!
It closed above 150, a psychological barrier, at 152. 52-wk high is at 169.75. It's getting toppy, but, the upwards momentum is still strong, and the monthly chart says there's still room to go!

AA reported earnings above estimates in AH. Let's see if it can help bring some more positive energy to the markets tomorrow. We still need a few more up days to get those 30-day MAs turned!

New Highs: VIP, ATI, NIHD

Quite a few stocks on my list made new highs today.

VIP went above 100 today! Wow!
It's reporting on Thursday, 4/12. It might have a little more to go before then.

ATI had a nice day. Broke above 114! It caught up with its upper BB. Cooled off a little before the close, but, this thing should go high!

NIHD is starting to ride the upper BB.
It also caught the upper BB. Might be looking at 80s before resting.

4/6/07 Weekend Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, BTK, CMGI, ICGE, SFE

The 1st week of April turned out to be a great week! The major indices continued to rise and are looking like they might soon re-test the highs set in February. Both biotechs and semiconductors made solid moves up and certainly helped to push the major indices higher.

Let's take a look at the Nasdaq:
Nasdaq had a nice day on Thursday to close out the week (so did SP 500 and the DOW), showing that buyers are still in control. The 20-day MA has crossed above the 30-day MA, but, we still need to see that 30-day MA turn up. The Nasdaq needs to now catch up with the upper BB; this should enable the 30-day MA to turn up!

The semiconductor sector is getting more and more positive attention. The SOX made 3 nice, consequtive, days of advances to close above 475. Now, the MACD is almost positive and the RSI is rising nicely. Notice that the upper BB is not so far away!

The biotechs are picking up a lot of momentum in the past few weeks. Let's take a look at BTK, the AMEX Biotech Index. BTK closed on Thursday above the resistance at 790! It is now in the clear to go even higher. The MACD is also rising nicely and the strength is high, as shown by the RSI. If fact, BTK is very close to re-testing its all-time high set in 2000(see the 10-year chart)!!

Another sector that looks interesting to me is the internet incubators. A lot of people have probably forgotten these since 2001. But, they seem to have recently gotten some renewed buying interests. CMGI, ICGE, and SFE have all made some nice upward movements lately. There's even an interesting article from Forbes about them.

So, the mjoar indices are in striking distance to re-test the February highs; the biotechs have taken off; the semiconductors are starting to move up (and, they need to break out of their multi-year range; see my post on 3/31/07); the commodities are still strong. If we see the buyers continue to push the major indices up and allow them to catch the upper BB, we might have new highs to look forward to in the next couple of weeks!

4/4/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, DOW, SOX

The markets enjoyed another nice day today. The major indices pretty much close just above their immediate resistances (the highs made after Bernanke's speech last week). The DOW closed at 12530.05; SP 500 at 1439.37; and, Nasdaq at 2458.69, the strongest percentage-wise. The semiconductor sector also rallied 4.42 points to close at 473.02.

Let's look at some charts:
The daily charts are pretty much the same story, besides that we continued to rise and closed just above the immediate resistances. Nasdaq closed above the 2457 resistance, but, still need to see that 30-day MA turn up! MACD and RSI continue to rise.

The intraday charts, however, are getting maxed out. So, are we breaking out of here to re-test the February highs? Let's take a look at the 15-minute chart: We see that on the 15-minute chart, the MACD is flattening. If we find enough strength tomorrow to make this MACD rise up again, we may find that the buyers are still in control. I think it'll be interesting to see how the Asian markets hold up overnight tonight.

SPX, or the SP 500 index: SPX pretty much shares the same story as Nasdaq, but, a little better. Notice that its 20-day MA (blue line) has just risen above the 30-day MA (black line). Maybe it's something that Nasdaq can look forward to in the next couple of sessions?

How about the semiconductors?
SOX made a nice advance to close above 470! The MACD has curved up and the RSI is rising. Even the 20-day MA turned up too! We need to see it break the resistance at 473.8 and go above 475!

We should be cautious tomorrow, especially because Friday is a holiday; so, tomorrow is the last trading day of the week. In the next couple of trading sessions, we should be able to sort out the near-term direction of the markets. Commodities, however, still seem to be strong.

4/3/07 Review: Nasdaq, DOW, SP 500, GOOG, RIMM

It was a very nice day for the markets!! The DOW closed above 12500; Nasdaq closed above 2450; and, SPX, or the SP 500, added more than 13 points! The major indices are ready to break some immediate resistance and perhaps retest the highs reached in February. SOX added more than 3, and, we definitely need to see the semiconductors rally more! SOX needs to break out of the range that it's been stuck in for years, shown in my entry on 3/31/07.

So, let's take a look at some charts and see where we stand: Nasdaq came near the immediate resistance at around 2457. It needs to break that and catch up with the upper BB. The MACD and RSI turned up nicely. We still want to see that 30-day MA turn up!

Let's see what the intraday chart is saying: The intraday indicators show that there is still some more room to go up! Let's see if we have enough momentum to break through that resistance around 2457. (The other major indices show similar near-term patterns.)

GOOG, with an announcement of a satellite TV ad deal with EchoStar, had a great day, which probably helped spark the market rally also!.

GOOG caught the upper BB today and is ready to ride it up! MACD, RSI, MFI all turned up, and the buying volume was high!

RIMM had a similar day as GOOG, and it is reporting on 4/11. RIMM also caught up with its upper BB with technical indicators going up nicely!

So, tomorrow, we'll need to see the major indices break their immediate resistance levels. Then, we can hope to retest the highs set in February!

4/2/07 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, NIHD, MICC, KYPH

The commodities stayed strong today and the broader markets did close green. The broader markets still seemed a little indecisive, until the EOD (end of the day). So, let's see if we can get some clues as to what's going on.

Nasdaq closed above the 30-day MA.
But, we still need to see that 30-day MA turn up (same story for the SPX, or SP 500). The 20-day MA is now going up nicely (blue line).
The intraday, hourly chart can perhaps provide some missing clues. After we tested the bottom last Thursday, some sorting out and back-and-forth needed to happen. We see that Nasdaq now have gotten above the intraday MAs (similar actions exist for the SPX), we might see some upwards momentum tomorrow.

The telecoms did well today. NIHD was one of the leaders. It made a nice advance above the resistance at 75.3 and had great volume to go with it. The MFI, RSI, MACD are all looking good. Might be in the 80s soon.

MICC had some similar actions as NIHD, but, not quite as strong. Indicators are all good and the volume went up a bit. 52-wk high is not that far away at 82.04. Catching the upper BB and closing above the resistance (80.15) may allow it to play some catching-up tomorrow and head for a new 52-wk high!

KYPH had a nice day, also! It broke above resistance @ 45.5 with great volume. This thing may be ready for a new 52-wk high also, which is only 48.45.

Some Stocks That I'm Watching: MSM, MT, NKE, CN

Here are some stocks that I'm watching for the new week:

MSM
MSM had a strong day on Friday and caught my attention. It jumped above the 10-, 20-, and 30-day MAs; and, the 20-day MA just went above the 30-day MA. Volume increased and the other technical signals are turning up. They are reporting on 4/4, so we might see some pre-earnings run.

MT MT is getting increasing attention. Forbes has been writting about it, after trumpeting up LSS and STLD. Since the technical signals are bullish, I think it's something worth a look.

NKE NKE has seen some profit-taking recently. But, on Friday, it had a little jump. Most analysts are expecting NKE to be above 120. With a 2-for-1 split coming on 4/3, might be time to grab it and enjoy a little 10-15% ride up.

CN
Let's not forget about CN, especially, it seems like Chinese stocks are hot, again! After a 10-point run, the earnings is coming. If it reports well, CN can really jump!

3/31/07 Review (cont.): GLD, OIH

***This is a continuation from the previous post. You might want to start here.

We can't get balanced picture of the markets without looking at some commodities. So, let's take a look at gold and the oil companies.

GLD (an ETF that tracks gold):
It's not very clear from GLD's monthly chart to tell where it is heading next. It managed to close above the resistance at 65.3. The MFI looks like it might be bottoming out. If the MFI starts to go up, GLD could go much higher. The monthly MAs are still going up, although the 10-month MA looks like it may be flattening out. The BBs are narrowing in, so, it may be range-bound.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart and see if we can get a clearer picture.Looks like GLD is riding the 10-wk MA and going up. The MFI and RSI on the weekly chart are curving up, after taking a rest. So, GLD could be going up a bit, but, will probably meet some resistance around 70 or so (it's 52-wk high).

OIH (an ETF that tracks the oil service industry) After months of consolidation, oils might be looking to run again! The SAR just turned up, with a bullish engulfing candle. The MACD, MFI, and RSI all turned up, too!

So, after looking at the monthly charts of Nasdaq, SOX, SPX (SP 500), MDY (mid-caps), GLD (gold), and OIH (oils), the bigger picture doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like we have:

1) a neutral"ish" trend with a bullish bias in the broader markets

2) a neutral trend in the semiconductors that might try to break out, which would give some needed momentum to the Nasdaq

3) money is still in the mid-caps

4) the party in the commodities might be picking up some more hot sauce!

3/31/07 Review: Nasdaq, SOXX, SPX, MDY

Next week is a new beginning, the beginning of a new week, new month, and a new quarter. We've had a crazy month! With all the back-and-forth (which favors some traders), if you came out with a gain, you should give yourself a pat on the back!

Since we're about to start a new month, I thought it's only fitting that we look at some monthly charts today. All of this "March Madness" has created a lot of nervousness and insecurity about which way the markets are going. So, I thought maybe if we pull our focus out a bit, get a bigger picture, we can proceed the new month with more confidence.

Nasdaq:
In Nasdaq's monthly chart, we actually see that it has behaved very well within the boundaries of an up-trend for years. There are areas where it tested the lower boundary, including this past week, but, it bounced back quickly. The monthly MAs are still going up strongly with the 10- above the 20-, above the 30-month MA. The uptrend is still intact!

In the daily chart, however, we still need to see that 30-day MA turn up! The 20-day MA is curving up nicely!

What about the SOX? The semiconductor sector, basically, have done a whole lot of nothing for years. But, notice that the monthly BBs have been narrowing, and they have gotten to a point where, I think, breakouts may be possible in the next few months. On Friday, we also heard that Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the semiconductor sector. Is this the first of many upgrades to come? We'll have to wait and see.

SPX (SP 500): SPX's month chart is still showing the MAs going up. Although it looks toppy, but, if the new month brings it right back to the upper BB, the whole picture becomes very bullish again!

MDY (mid-caps):
Now, this is where this money has been, is, and might still be going! We can see that since April of 2003, this thing has been climbing, and climbing, along the upper BB. Even with the recently sell-off, it still came out with a nice gain in March. Now, it is, again, hugging the upper BB, and, with the 10-month MA curving up even more! So, it might be a good idea to check out some of its top holding!

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3/29/07 Review: Nasdaq, FMCN, PTR, NDE

Hey, we actually closed green!! Tomorrow's Friday and last trading day of the month. Let's see how we hold up tomorrow. That was a pretty good test of the support levels. Certainly nice to see INTC bounce back and close green. If we hold on, or add to the gains, tomorrow, we might have some near-term bullishness coming next week. But, we're not completely in the comfort zone yet. (oh, by the way, do you like the new color scheme for the charts?)

Nasdaq tested the 20-day MA, and support level, around 2400. Bounced back nicely. We can get a closer prespective from the intraday, hourly, chart:We see that Nasdaq tested 2400 for a little while. The indicators bottomed out and the buyers came in.

But, to really have a more bullish trend, we'll need to see it above 2460, catching the upper BB on the daily chart, and have the 30-day MA turned up! So, let's be cautious and thankful that we bounced back from 2400 today, and watch things vigilently for the next couple of days!

FMCN had a fantastic day today. Up 5.74%! It is splitting on 4/11 and showing some pretty bullish signals! It has caught the upper BB. If it breaks the resistance @ 79.1, it might re-test the 52-wk high of 88.5. MACD, MFI, RSI and the volume are all very good!

PTR also made some solid gains today.

It also has caught the upper BB and the volume was good. We might see some more upsides tomorrow, but, there is some pretty solid resistance just above 120. Breaking through 122 might bring 130.

Surprisingly, NDE had a little breakout today!
They claimed that, for them, the "subprime contagion" is overblown. The stock rised on increasing volume. We might see it get squeezed all the way to about 37.5, or so. But, given the situation in the housing/lending sector, this is hard to bite into.

3/28/07 Review: Nasdaq, CN

Boy, this is a tough market! Certainly, I like days that we rally; 'cause this is "happy" trading! Then, I'm more excited to look at stocks because they are much more pleasant to look at. But, you'd have to look at the chart signals, "technically", and not emotionally. So, let's see what we have:

Nasdaq closed just below the 10-day MA.
We have a support level at 2401, which now pretty much coincides with the 20-day MA. The MACD and RSI have been sliding the past couple of days. Let's take a look at the intraday chart: We see that we pretty much reached the top on 3/21 at around 2460. Didn't have quite enough momentum to push through that resistance, as most of other indicators (MACD, MFI, RSI) also topped out. Now, we have the support at around 2401. We can see that the same indicators are beginning to bottom out. The question for tomorrow, and perhaps the next couple of days, would be "would this support hold?" Can we bounce off and create a near-term range bottom to re-test 2460? We'll have to patiently, but, vigilently, wait and see. (The Nasdaq chart resembles those of the other indices, ie. SPX, DJI...etc, for the near-term.)

Now, SOX, the index for the semi-conductors, a sector that is very important for sustainable rallies in techs, really needs to get its acts together.

It closed below the mid-point level of the trading range that we've been in, at around 474 (the green line across the chart). We're now sitting right at the next support line, around 469.
Apparently, the "W" pattern that I pointed out a few days ago did not take off like last time in November. This time, we're testing the bottom from our recent bounce again. Hope the 469 level holds, or, we might test 460 level again.

Ok, let's talk about something brighter! Like Cramer says, "There's always a bull-market somewhere!"

CN had a nice day today. It showed the similar pattern as many other stocks for the past few weeks (coming up to resistance level, with upper BB very close by). But, today, it broke resistance and actually caught the upper BB.
The other indicators (MACD, MFI, RSI, and volume) are all looking great, too! We might see CN start climbing that upper BB! Go CN!!

3/26/07 Some More Stocks That I'm Looking At: FCX, ATI, RTI, SHLD, CTSH, LVS, MGM, WYNN

FCX rallied big today and caught the upper BB; it also broke out above the resistance at around 62.
It had great buying volume, again. If the 20-day MA curves up tomorrow and stays above the 30-day MA without crossing it, it would be a very bullish sign; and, the momentum might pick up even more!

ATI has been fighting this resistance at 109.4 for a few days. But, RTI made a new 52-wk high today, and most other metal stocks did well also.
ATI needs to break above that resistance at 139.4 and catch the upper BB. I think it should be ATI's turn to break out soon!

SHLD has been running well for over a week. Today, it caught up with the upper BB. It's MAs are curving up nicely and the MACD, too! It is in a good position to continue higher and push open the upper BB and ride it up!

We're seeing many stocks getting ready to break out and CTSH is another one! Similar story: it closed right at resistance and has caught the upper BB. Nice MA, MACD, and buying volume. Ready to break out!

The casino group (LVS/WYNN/MGM) are ready to run also. Their charts are similar. I'm using LVS as a representative for the group
LVS squeezed out a "green" day today and closed above the resistance. The upper BB is already turning up. If LVS catches its upper BB, which is very close, it should create momentum to break out higher.