3/31/07 Review (cont.): GLD, OIH

***This is a continuation from the previous post. You might want to start here.

We can't get balanced picture of the markets without looking at some commodities. So, let's take a look at gold and the oil companies.

GLD (an ETF that tracks gold):
It's not very clear from GLD's monthly chart to tell where it is heading next. It managed to close above the resistance at 65.3. The MFI looks like it might be bottoming out. If the MFI starts to go up, GLD could go much higher. The monthly MAs are still going up, although the 10-month MA looks like it may be flattening out. The BBs are narrowing in, so, it may be range-bound.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart and see if we can get a clearer picture.Looks like GLD is riding the 10-wk MA and going up. The MFI and RSI on the weekly chart are curving up, after taking a rest. So, GLD could be going up a bit, but, will probably meet some resistance around 70 or so (it's 52-wk high).

OIH (an ETF that tracks the oil service industry) After months of consolidation, oils might be looking to run again! The SAR just turned up, with a bullish engulfing candle. The MACD, MFI, and RSI all turned up, too!

So, after looking at the monthly charts of Nasdaq, SOX, SPX (SP 500), MDY (mid-caps), GLD (gold), and OIH (oils), the bigger picture doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like we have:

1) a neutral"ish" trend with a bullish bias in the broader markets

2) a neutral trend in the semiconductors that might try to break out, which would give some needed momentum to the Nasdaq

3) money is still in the mid-caps

4) the party in the commodities might be picking up some more hot sauce!

3/31/07 Review: Nasdaq, SOXX, SPX, MDY

Next week is a new beginning, the beginning of a new week, new month, and a new quarter. We've had a crazy month! With all the back-and-forth (which favors some traders), if you came out with a gain, you should give yourself a pat on the back!

Since we're about to start a new month, I thought it's only fitting that we look at some monthly charts today. All of this "March Madness" has created a lot of nervousness and insecurity about which way the markets are going. So, I thought maybe if we pull our focus out a bit, get a bigger picture, we can proceed the new month with more confidence.

Nasdaq:
In Nasdaq's monthly chart, we actually see that it has behaved very well within the boundaries of an up-trend for years. There are areas where it tested the lower boundary, including this past week, but, it bounced back quickly. The monthly MAs are still going up strongly with the 10- above the 20-, above the 30-month MA. The uptrend is still intact!

In the daily chart, however, we still need to see that 30-day MA turn up! The 20-day MA is curving up nicely!

What about the SOX? The semiconductor sector, basically, have done a whole lot of nothing for years. But, notice that the monthly BBs have been narrowing, and they have gotten to a point where, I think, breakouts may be possible in the next few months. On Friday, we also heard that Stifel Nicolaus upgraded the semiconductor sector. Is this the first of many upgrades to come? We'll have to wait and see.

SPX (SP 500): SPX's month chart is still showing the MAs going up. Although it looks toppy, but, if the new month brings it right back to the upper BB, the whole picture becomes very bullish again!

MDY (mid-caps):
Now, this is where this money has been, is, and might still be going! We can see that since April of 2003, this thing has been climbing, and climbing, along the upper BB. Even with the recently sell-off, it still came out with a nice gain in March. Now, it is, again, hugging the upper BB, and, with the 10-month MA curving up even more! So, it might be a good idea to check out some of its top holding!

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3/29/07 Review: Nasdaq, FMCN, PTR, NDE

Hey, we actually closed green!! Tomorrow's Friday and last trading day of the month. Let's see how we hold up tomorrow. That was a pretty good test of the support levels. Certainly nice to see INTC bounce back and close green. If we hold on, or add to the gains, tomorrow, we might have some near-term bullishness coming next week. But, we're not completely in the comfort zone yet. (oh, by the way, do you like the new color scheme for the charts?)

Nasdaq tested the 20-day MA, and support level, around 2400. Bounced back nicely. We can get a closer prespective from the intraday, hourly, chart:We see that Nasdaq tested 2400 for a little while. The indicators bottomed out and the buyers came in.

But, to really have a more bullish trend, we'll need to see it above 2460, catching the upper BB on the daily chart, and have the 30-day MA turned up! So, let's be cautious and thankful that we bounced back from 2400 today, and watch things vigilently for the next couple of days!

FMCN had a fantastic day today. Up 5.74%! It is splitting on 4/11 and showing some pretty bullish signals! It has caught the upper BB. If it breaks the resistance @ 79.1, it might re-test the 52-wk high of 88.5. MACD, MFI, RSI and the volume are all very good!

PTR also made some solid gains today.

It also has caught the upper BB and the volume was good. We might see some more upsides tomorrow, but, there is some pretty solid resistance just above 120. Breaking through 122 might bring 130.

Surprisingly, NDE had a little breakout today!
They claimed that, for them, the "subprime contagion" is overblown. The stock rised on increasing volume. We might see it get squeezed all the way to about 37.5, or so. But, given the situation in the housing/lending sector, this is hard to bite into.

3/28/07 Review: Nasdaq, CN

Boy, this is a tough market! Certainly, I like days that we rally; 'cause this is "happy" trading! Then, I'm more excited to look at stocks because they are much more pleasant to look at. But, you'd have to look at the chart signals, "technically", and not emotionally. So, let's see what we have:

Nasdaq closed just below the 10-day MA.
We have a support level at 2401, which now pretty much coincides with the 20-day MA. The MACD and RSI have been sliding the past couple of days. Let's take a look at the intraday chart: We see that we pretty much reached the top on 3/21 at around 2460. Didn't have quite enough momentum to push through that resistance, as most of other indicators (MACD, MFI, RSI) also topped out. Now, we have the support at around 2401. We can see that the same indicators are beginning to bottom out. The question for tomorrow, and perhaps the next couple of days, would be "would this support hold?" Can we bounce off and create a near-term range bottom to re-test 2460? We'll have to patiently, but, vigilently, wait and see. (The Nasdaq chart resembles those of the other indices, ie. SPX, DJI...etc, for the near-term.)

Now, SOX, the index for the semi-conductors, a sector that is very important for sustainable rallies in techs, really needs to get its acts together.

It closed below the mid-point level of the trading range that we've been in, at around 474 (the green line across the chart). We're now sitting right at the next support line, around 469.
Apparently, the "W" pattern that I pointed out a few days ago did not take off like last time in November. This time, we're testing the bottom from our recent bounce again. Hope the 469 level holds, or, we might test 460 level again.

Ok, let's talk about something brighter! Like Cramer says, "There's always a bull-market somewhere!"

CN had a nice day today. It showed the similar pattern as many other stocks for the past few weeks (coming up to resistance level, with upper BB very close by). But, today, it broke resistance and actually caught the upper BB.
The other indicators (MACD, MFI, RSI, and volume) are all looking great, too! We might see CN start climbing that upper BB! Go CN!!

3/27/07 Review: Nasdaq, GOOG

I'll do a quick review today since the "essence" of the overall market condition can be easily demonstrated.

Right from the opening today, the bears grabbed the market, from more bad news in the housing sector to so-so consumer sentiment. But, the bulls hung on with poise. GOOG even, almost, managed to close green!

Let's take a look at Nasdaq's charts:
Last night, I said that I'd like to see the upper BB and the 20-day MA of Nasdaq turn up (same for other major indices). Even though we had a down day, both of these conditions happened. What this does is opening up the potential for a bigger rally, if the Nasdaq can break above the resistance at 2457 and catch the upper BB.

Let's also take a look at the weekly chart: The weekly chart shows that Nasdaq is still operating within the BBs, with the BBs narrowing, but, with an uptrend bias (bottom BB going up). The MACD has flattened and is turning up. The 10-wk MA has flattened and the 20-wk MA has continued its upward movement, even after the recent selloff.

So, to me, the charts say that we still have a bullish bias:
1) the resistance at 2457 is near and reachable
2) the upper BB is near and reachable

Once the above 2 conditions are met, I think we'll re-test 2500. These conditions are similar in other major indices.

GOOG made a heroic effort to close green, but, just came out shy. There are still a couple of good things: Basically, the same things as the Nasdaq: both the upper BB and 20-day MA turned up. Also, note the lower volume.

So, the market situation, I think, is this: We have recovered, for the most part, above the 10, 20, 30-day MAs and have an immediate resistance that is near and reachable, with the upper BB also in the vicinity. If the MAs provide good support, I feel that the markets have a good chance to rally higher and re-test the highs before the quick selloff.

3/27/07 Morning Action

This morning's action is mainly a reaction to more bad news in the housing sector. Consumer sentiment didn't help. But, strangely enough, the daily charts of the major indices actually have the MAs turned up. I wonder if the bulls are waiting to pounce again in the afternoon. We'll have to wait and see.

3/26/07 Some More Stocks That I'm Looking At: FCX, ATI, RTI, SHLD, CTSH, LVS, MGM, WYNN

FCX rallied big today and caught the upper BB; it also broke out above the resistance at around 62.
It had great buying volume, again. If the 20-day MA curves up tomorrow and stays above the 30-day MA without crossing it, it would be a very bullish sign; and, the momentum might pick up even more!

ATI has been fighting this resistance at 109.4 for a few days. But, RTI made a new 52-wk high today, and most other metal stocks did well also.
ATI needs to break above that resistance at 139.4 and catch the upper BB. I think it should be ATI's turn to break out soon!

SHLD has been running well for over a week. Today, it caught up with the upper BB. It's MAs are curving up nicely and the MACD, too! It is in a good position to continue higher and push open the upper BB and ride it up!

We're seeing many stocks getting ready to break out and CTSH is another one! Similar story: it closed right at resistance and has caught the upper BB. Nice MA, MACD, and buying volume. Ready to break out!

The casino group (LVS/WYNN/MGM) are ready to run also. Their charts are similar. I'm using LVS as a representative for the group
LVS squeezed out a "green" day today and closed above the resistance. The upper BB is already turning up. If LVS catches its upper BB, which is very close, it should create momentum to break out higher.

3/26/07 Review: Nasdaq, SPX, SOX, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM

It was a nice day for the markets. We survived the new housing data and the bulls rallied Nasdaq all the way to finish green! This showed that there's a lot of money standing on the sideline, ready to come in.

The Nasdaq closed right at resistance. It needs to catch the upper BB and start turning it up. Similar charts exist for other major indices, for example, SPX.
I'd really like to see a strong rally in the techs tomorrow and push the upper BB up and open. This should also start to turn that 20-day MA.

The SOX basically had a flat day. Nice come back, though. Still waiting to see if the tailend of the "W" pattern would take off. The MACD is going up nicely, but, we really, really, need to see the MAs turn up! If the SOX rallies tomorrow, the markets should be pretty strong.

GOOG had another nice day. It closed right at the resistance and have caught the upper BB, which opened up the door for a big rally tomorrow. The MAs are behaving nicely: 10-day MA has has crossed above the 20-day MA; the 20-day MA is flattening; and, the 30-day MA has already turned up. All great signs!

AAPL had another strong day. It's been riding the upper BB for days. Today, it sailed right past the resistance at 95. Although it might be starting to look a bit toppy, the strong volume today and the fact that 52-wk high is not that far away, I think AAPL can still continue this run.

RIMM had a strong day today. I've been patiently waiting for RIMM to sort out this resistance at 137 (see post on 3/22/07). It dropped below 137 in the morning and created much more room on its intraday charts. When the market rallied, so did RIMM. When it went above 137 again, I thought it could be time for it to break out.
RIMM closed basically at 139, well above 137. The upper BB is very close. At about 140, it would have caught the upper BB and gone past the only major resistance left. The MACD has just turned positive. So, with a little more push, we might see RIMM at new highs very soon.

So, a very good day overall, and, if we get a strong rally tomorrow, the major indices would probably all catch the upper BB and be in the breakout mode. We certainly need the SOX to have a strong day. If the SOX starts to rally early, it would be a good sign!

New Home Sales Affecting Markets: GOOG, AAPL, SOX

New home sales data is holding the markets captive, at least for now. SOX really needs to come back up to inspire the markets. GOOG and AAPL are holding up well. Now that the intraday charts show a lot more room above, let's see if the bulls can get something going in the late afternoon.

For the major indices, the upper BBs are within reach, and are also acting as barriers. If the markets get going in the afternoon, they might just catch the upper BBs and start to push it up. We'll need to see some strong buying.

Do They Know Something? IMCL, BSTE, OC

A lot of times, when I hear that a stock suddenly jumps 10-20%, and, I'd take a look at the news and the daily chart. Almost always, I'd see that there's already being big buyings a few days before.

Take a look at IMCL. On Friday, there was news from AMGN, saying that the testing results from one of its drugs were not so good. The news sent IMCL, who has a drug in competition with AMGN, flying!
If we take a look at IMCL's chart, we see that "people" have been buying up IMCL for a week on increasing volume! I actually looked at IMCL on Wednesday last week, and thought that it was just a normal breakout, catching the upper BB! How innocent was I?!

BEC just announced that it'll buy BSTE for about $1.55 billion, cash, which translates to $85/share for BSTE! Guess where BSTE closed on Friday? A mere $55.38!! When I looked at the chart, sure enough, big buying on Friday. Notice that the stock price managed to catch the upper BB on Friday.

So, I accidentally stumbled upon OC, when I was looking at GLW. They both have "Corning" in their company names and Fidelity's news filter doesn't seem to quite know how to differentiate the two. What the news showed was that the OC insiders have been buying up OC big time!! The chart shows that it's had continuous buying on very good volume for the past week. And, MACD, MFI, RSI all look good. So, do they know something? I guess we'll find out; see if OC catches the upper BB in the next couple of days!

This is why I often like to get into the stocks that have caught the upper BB with more room to breakout. Big news often follow the charts because people who know about the news, the smart money, always position themselves before the news come out for big gains!

Some Stocks That I'm Looking At: VCLK, NYX, ATI, FXC, EQIX

VCLK had a good day on Thursday last week and it looked like it could make a run to break out. But, on Friday, it pretty much gave back the gains.
The BBs are closing in, and Friday's volume made it look like someone is trying to keep it within the BBs a little longer. At this point, it'll have to go above about 27.5-28 to go anywhere.

The metals sector are still strong. Last week, it looks like "they" are determined to drive this sector even higher. The big names are taking turns to have big "green" days. ATI had a bit of "rest" on Friday. It is in a position to break out for a new high next week! It's upper BB is within reach. Its 20-day MA is almost above the 30-day MA. And, the MACD is going up nicely.

NYX hasn't been doing much for a while. The drama between CME/ICE/BOT have created some uncertainties and choppiness in this sector. But, it might be ready for a move. If NYX breaks 90, it would probably have caught the upper BB and just ride it higher. Its 10-day MA just crossed above the 20-day MA; and, the 20-day MA is flattening.

Cramer is pumping this stock up. And, Friday's volume makes it a little hard to ignore!Friday's volume is about 5 times the average volume. 5 times!! Although it opened lower, it came back into the green and closed above the 61.9 resistance. It might just make a good jump and catch the upper BB for a breakout run!

EQIX has been running all week. It finally took a small rest on Friday, and, it still closed green!
It has caught the upper BB and may very well be ready to make a breakout next week!

3/24/2007 Weekend Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, SOX, GOOG

What a week for the markets!! S&P 500 scores its best week since 2003! Let's take a look:

Nasdaq on Friday was very choppy. The ticker actually showed 4+ points in the green at the close. I even called Fidelity to make sure that was correct because seconds before the close, it was in the red. The Fidelity's representative confirmed that it "seemed" correct. But, an hour, or so, later, "after" the close, Nasdaq showed -2 points. That, was very strange! But, let's not fuss with it and call it a "flat" day.
In any case, Nasdaq did quite well for the week. The 10-day MA is above the 20-day MA, and, the 20-day MA is flattening. We still need to close above 2456. The upper BB is very close now; would like to see it start to curve up, or at least flattening. If Nasdaq catches the upper BB, it can go into breakout mode and push the upper BB wide open.

The S&P 500 shows a similar chart as the Nasdaq, but, the upper BB is much closer. Breaking 1438 would likely allow it to catch the upper BB and run!

The SOX is an essential part of the rally. It has to participate, if not lead. The BBs are narrowing in now and I would very much like to see the 20-day MA turn up. An interesting thing that I noticed is the period between around 10/16-11/10/2006. The situation is almost identical to the one it is in now:
First, it starts with reaching a high, going above the upper BB. Then, it is followed with a sharp downturn. Then, a bounce, but, fails, only to be followed by a sharp rise that creates a W. And, the tailend of the W catches the upper BB with enough momentum to create new highs! Both times, we see the BBs closing in before the tailend of the W makes a powerful jump and taks off! The history is likely to repeat itself. Next Monday and Tuesday will give us good clues.

GOOG finished a nice strong week. It did close between 460-465, which is quite "goog", or good! =) The lower volume on a flat day is a good thing. I would like to see that 20-day MA start to turn up! We'll need a strong day on Monday. Breaking 465, only some 3 points away, would basically allow GOOG to catch the upper BB and run. If that happens, the initial resistance is around 480.

Many analysts are looking for GOOG to go above 550, and perhaps even above 600; and, I "feel" that it will. But, it seems that every time GOOG hits 510, the sellers are there waiting. I think GOOG needs to finally get that split. Psychologically, 300 is a lot easier to handle than 600 for such a big company. April just might bring us the good news and people might already be gearing up for it!

So, the major indices are mostly in similar places:

1) They've all successfully tested the bottom twice.

2) They've all gone above the 10, 20, and 30-day MAs.

3) They all have the upper BB within reach.

If we get some strong follow-through rallies on Monday and Tuesday, we might just have enough momentum to hit new highs!

3/22/2007 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, GOOG, RIMM, telecoms, semi-conductors, metals, oils

We did pretty well today. The DOW managed to close green. As I pointed out last night, the intraday charts were toppy, and it did turn out to be a choppy day. Let's see where we are now:

The Nasdaq needs to manage to close above 2455; it would be a bullish note and would set up for the re-test of 2500! I would like to see the 20-day MA (yellow line) to start turning up. Notice the BB are closing in.

Let's take a look at the broader markets, SP 500:

The chart looks similar to that of the Nasdaq, but, the upper BB is much closer. If SPX manages to break 1438, it has a good chance to catch the upper BB and perhaps break out higher!

GOOG did very well today, up 5+ points!

GOOG closed above the 30-day MA today! Go Google!! I think it will test 465 tomorrow. The MACD is going up nicely and the volume is very good. The intraday charts (not shown) are still toppy. If GOOG can mange to close between 460-465, and allow the intraday charts to let off some steam, it would be very good. The upper BB is very close. If GOOG can take a little rest, and break higher next week, it may be able to catch the upper BB and run with it!

I wanted to take a look at RIMM because I think some bullish opportunities are shaping up! RIMM has been caught between 130-137 for a couple of weeks, but, it made some good advances today:

It tested 137 intraday, but, closed below it. The buying volume was nice, and the MACD and MFI are both curving up!
But, the intraday charts are toppy. I think if RIMM holds 135-137 while allowing the intraday charts to take a break, we may see good bullish opportunities next week. If RIMM re-tests 137 and is able to break it with strength, we may see new highs very soon!

So, we are at a place very similar to last night: the intraday charts are still toppy. We certainly need the telecoms and the semi-conductors to participate in the rallies. The metals and the oils, especially the oils, still look strong.

One important note is that, for most of the indices, the BBs are closing in on the daily chart. We may see a couple of more days of consolidation. But, the upper BBs are all pretty close. So, if the markets take a small rest and rally again, they may just catch the upper BBs and break higher!

3/21/2007 Review: Nasdaq, SMH, SOX, GOOG, AKAM, WFR, FFIV, RIMM, LVS, UNH

It was a great day!! Thanks Feds! Let the bulls run!! I tried to stay positive since I started this blog on Sunday 3/18, hoping that the Feds will help spark a broad-based rally. Or, maybe the bulls are just looking for an excuse to rally. A few days before the selloff at the end of February, I read an article somewhere (forgot where), which said that we needed a sharp, quick correction before going even higher. So, when the selloff came, and it came sharp and fast, I was convinced that we are going to bounce off and head for even higher grounds. Let's hope that this is what's ahead of us.

Let's take a look at Nasdaq:

Nasdaq closed above all 10, 20, and 30-day MAs. I would very much like to see the 20-day MA start to turn up. Nasdaq's MACD got a big jump up today! Nice!

We talked about the semi-conductors for the past few days and looked at SMH. SMH did well today, but, SOX did even better!

SOX's chart looks really good. It closed above all MAs, and the MAs are curving up! MACD turned positive and the upper BB has already opened up. We really need this sector and the telecoms to continue to rally to help boost Nasdaq up!


Last night, I was looking for GOOG to make a big jump and go above the MAs. It "almost" did that today.

GOOG closed right at the 30-day MA. The MACD turned positive and we have a pretty good up volume. Hopefully, it'll try to break 465 this week. If GOOG catches the upper BB, it can fly!

AKAM has been taking things slowly, and, it finally woke up today.Like GOOG, it also closed right at the 30-day MA. It needs to break 55 and catch the upper BB. MACD, MFI, RSI are all good; the best thing is the "big" volume today!

UNH has been toying with the resistance at around 54.1 for a long time. It finally broke out today!

UNH also caught the upper BB today, so, I think it'll go up more in the days to come! The volume was also good today.


Last night, when I looked at POT, I thought POT would try for 166 today. It did well, but, didn't quite make it to 166. Its MACD just turned positive and the upper BB is not too far away. Its intraday charts are a bit toppy. Hopefully, it will be able to hold the present gains and try to break 166 next week.

WFR went crazy today, toppying 61!! That's over 6 points and a 12% gain in 2 days! RIMM also made a jump today. FFIV has made a nice advance.

So, after a big day like this, many of the intraday charts are getting toppy. We might have some choppiness tomorrow. But, I hope the bulls will be able to pull out some follow-throughs. I'm looking for Nasdaq to test 2500 sometime next week. If the SOX runs with strength, it could easily catch the upper BB around 490 and break out!