3/31/07 Review (cont.): GLD, OIH

***This is a continuation from the previous post. You might want to start here.

We can't get balanced picture of the markets without looking at some commodities. So, let's take a look at gold and the oil companies.

GLD (an ETF that tracks gold):
It's not very clear from GLD's monthly chart to tell where it is heading next. It managed to close above the resistance at 65.3. The MFI looks like it might be bottoming out. If the MFI starts to go up, GLD could go much higher. The monthly MAs are still going up, although the 10-month MA looks like it may be flattening out. The BBs are narrowing in, so, it may be range-bound.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart and see if we can get a clearer picture.Looks like GLD is riding the 10-wk MA and going up. The MFI and RSI on the weekly chart are curving up, after taking a rest. So, GLD could be going up a bit, but, will probably meet some resistance around 70 or so (it's 52-wk high).

OIH (an ETF that tracks the oil service industry) After months of consolidation, oils might be looking to run again! The SAR just turned up, with a bullish engulfing candle. The MACD, MFI, and RSI all turned up, too!

So, after looking at the monthly charts of Nasdaq, SOX, SPX (SP 500), MDY (mid-caps), GLD (gold), and OIH (oils), the bigger picture doesn't seem all that bad. Looks like we have:

1) a neutral"ish" trend with a bullish bias in the broader markets

2) a neutral trend in the semiconductors that might try to break out, which would give some needed momentum to the Nasdaq

3) money is still in the mid-caps

4) the party in the commodities might be picking up some more hot sauce!

3/22/2007 Review: Nasdaq, SP 500, GOOG, RIMM, telecoms, semi-conductors, metals, oils

We did pretty well today. The DOW managed to close green. As I pointed out last night, the intraday charts were toppy, and it did turn out to be a choppy day. Let's see where we are now:

The Nasdaq needs to manage to close above 2455; it would be a bullish note and would set up for the re-test of 2500! I would like to see the 20-day MA (yellow line) to start turning up. Notice the BB are closing in.

Let's take a look at the broader markets, SP 500:

The chart looks similar to that of the Nasdaq, but, the upper BB is much closer. If SPX manages to break 1438, it has a good chance to catch the upper BB and perhaps break out higher!

GOOG did very well today, up 5+ points!

GOOG closed above the 30-day MA today! Go Google!! I think it will test 465 tomorrow. The MACD is going up nicely and the volume is very good. The intraday charts (not shown) are still toppy. If GOOG can mange to close between 460-465, and allow the intraday charts to let off some steam, it would be very good. The upper BB is very close. If GOOG can take a little rest, and break higher next week, it may be able to catch the upper BB and run with it!

I wanted to take a look at RIMM because I think some bullish opportunities are shaping up! RIMM has been caught between 130-137 for a couple of weeks, but, it made some good advances today:

It tested 137 intraday, but, closed below it. The buying volume was nice, and the MACD and MFI are both curving up!
But, the intraday charts are toppy. I think if RIMM holds 135-137 while allowing the intraday charts to take a break, we may see good bullish opportunities next week. If RIMM re-tests 137 and is able to break it with strength, we may see new highs very soon!

So, we are at a place very similar to last night: the intraday charts are still toppy. We certainly need the telecoms and the semi-conductors to participate in the rallies. The metals and the oils, especially the oils, still look strong.

One important note is that, for most of the indices, the BBs are closing in on the daily chart. We may see a couple of more days of consolidation. But, the upper BBs are all pretty close. So, if the markets take a small rest and rally again, they may just catch the upper BBs and break higher!