4/9/07 Review: Nasdaq, OIH, GLD, AAPL, GOOG

The markets could not quite decide which way to go today. The SP 500 still managed to close green, but, the Nasdaq and the SOX had a little tougher time. So, what do the charts say?

The charts for the major indices still resemble each other, more or less. Let's take a look at the Nasdaq: Nasdaq was able to make a higher high, but, wasn't able to to hold it. We need very much to get that 30-day MA turned up. It would probably take more than a few consecutive strong up days to make that happen. Nasdaq needs to catch that upper BB and ride along it.

We should have taken a look at the weekly charts this weekend. Let's do it now: Nasdaq shows that it made a nice gain last week. Both MACD and RSI have started to turn up. So, the bias is still on the long side. Let's see if the trend can continue this week.

Gold also made a nice gain last week. GLD's weekly chart looks really nice, with higher highs and higher lows. The MACD has started to go up again! The uptrend is still intact, but, it is getting a bit toppy.

The oils also made good gains last week. Similar story as gold, but, even a little more toppy. OIH made it all the way to 151.41 today, which almost touched the upper BB on the weekly chart. It might make another attempt sometime this week.

In order for the major indices to keep on going and re-test the February highs, they need to make a few sessions with solid gains. They all need to catch up to their respective upper BBs and turn their 30-day MAs up! And, SOX needs to participate in the big rallies to break out of their multi-year range. Gold, and rest of the metals, still seem strong. The oils, represented by OIH, may be getting toppy, but, the monthly chart is still bullish.

3/26/07 Review: Nasdaq, SPX, SOX, GOOG, AAPL, RIMM

It was a nice day for the markets. We survived the new housing data and the bulls rallied Nasdaq all the way to finish green! This showed that there's a lot of money standing on the sideline, ready to come in.

The Nasdaq closed right at resistance. It needs to catch the upper BB and start turning it up. Similar charts exist for other major indices, for example, SPX.
I'd really like to see a strong rally in the techs tomorrow and push the upper BB up and open. This should also start to turn that 20-day MA.

The SOX basically had a flat day. Nice come back, though. Still waiting to see if the tailend of the "W" pattern would take off. The MACD is going up nicely, but, we really, really, need to see the MAs turn up! If the SOX rallies tomorrow, the markets should be pretty strong.

GOOG had another nice day. It closed right at the resistance and have caught the upper BB, which opened up the door for a big rally tomorrow. The MAs are behaving nicely: 10-day MA has has crossed above the 20-day MA; the 20-day MA is flattening; and, the 30-day MA has already turned up. All great signs!

AAPL had another strong day. It's been riding the upper BB for days. Today, it sailed right past the resistance at 95. Although it might be starting to look a bit toppy, the strong volume today and the fact that 52-wk high is not that far away, I think AAPL can still continue this run.

RIMM had a strong day today. I've been patiently waiting for RIMM to sort out this resistance at 137 (see post on 3/22/07). It dropped below 137 in the morning and created much more room on its intraday charts. When the market rallied, so did RIMM. When it went above 137 again, I thought it could be time for it to break out.
RIMM closed basically at 139, well above 137. The upper BB is very close. At about 140, it would have caught the upper BB and gone past the only major resistance left. The MACD has just turned positive. So, with a little more push, we might see RIMM at new highs very soon.

So, a very good day overall, and, if we get a strong rally tomorrow, the major indices would probably all catch the upper BB and be in the breakout mode. We certainly need the SOX to have a strong day. If the SOX starts to rally early, it would be a good sign!

New Home Sales Affecting Markets: GOOG, AAPL, SOX

New home sales data is holding the markets captive, at least for now. SOX really needs to come back up to inspire the markets. GOOG and AAPL are holding up well. Now that the intraday charts show a lot more room above, let's see if the bulls can get something going in the late afternoon.

For the major indices, the upper BBs are within reach, and are also acting as barriers. If the markets get going in the afternoon, they might just catch the upper BBs and start to push it up. We'll need to see some strong buying.

Monday Night Review (GOOG, AAPL, Nasdaq, SMH, POT)

So, we've had a nice Monday rally. Let's see how things are looking:

Last night we looked at GOOG's chart, and saw that the 10-day MA was flattening. I thought that GOOG might make a move up today. And, it did!

GOOG's daily chart shows that the 10-day MA is curving up; a good sign. Also, MACD, MFI, and RSI are all going up. Would like to see higher buying volume tomorrow.

The intraday-hourly chart shows that the MFI still has room, so we could see 455 tomorrow, or higher, depends on how fast GOOG wants to move. If we get good news from the Feds on Wed, GOOG could blast through 465, which could really send it up!

AAPL's daily chart is picking up momentum. It made a little breakout today.

Nice up volume. The MAs are moving up well.

AAPL's intraday hourly chart shows that its MFI made some room for it to go up more tomorrow.

We didn't get a participation from the semi-conductor sector today. Let's take a look at the SMH:

It closed just below the support at 34. We really need to see some strength from this sector for the rally to continue.

Nasdaq did well today. We closed above the 10-day MA, which is curving up.

We need to watch out for the 20-day MA as an initial resistance. Hopefully, we can close between 2400-2425, tomorrow. If the Feds decide to be nice on Wed, Nasdaq needs to break 2440 and go above the MAs to continue the rally!

POT is a nice momentum stock. I'm watching it hoping that it will turn up and go into 170s again, soon:

The intraday hourly chart shows that if POT breaks 156.8, it might start to fly again. The stock is traveling along the 10-hour MA right now. I noticed that the MACD, MFI (bottom), and RSI are all turning up.

So, we've had a nice day for the bulls. As I thought last night, we'd get a rally today. Hopefully, we'll see it continue tomorrow. But, it really depends on what the Feds say on Wed. If they decided to be nice, the market sentiments should turn more positive.

Nice Monday Rally!!

So far, so good! Hopefully, GOOG will extend its gain and head for 555 on Tuesday, without maxing out the MFI on the hourly chart (will do charts this evening).

What I'm missing and would like to see is a rally continuing from the telecoms. They were strong last week, so, might be taking a breather.

INTC
Hope it will join the rally soon; that'll boost the Nasdaq over 2400!

UNH
Very interesting... after Friday's semi-breakout and an expiration manipulation, pulling it back, it has retaken 54.1 level. Can we get a real breakout this time? This sector seems to be strong!

AAPL
Leading the pack with its breakout! Daily chart looks really good!

GOOG/AAPL/Nasdaq

This has been a tough couple of weeks for the markets. The sentiments out there don't seem to be very positive. I'm going to try to take a look at the charts for GOOG, AAPL, and Nasdaq, since they help me in getting a sense of where the markets are going.

Let's first take a look at GOOG. We've heard some pretty positive comments on GOOG recently, but, it just hasn't really moved.

This chart is GOOG's daily chart. What I see here is that we did successfully test the support at around 438 twice. But, although we bounced off, the bounces weren't too strong. The first time, we bounced straight to the 20-day MA. The second time to the 10-day MA. The good thing is that the MAs seem to be flattening out, especially the 10-day. Even with Friday's down move, it didn't budge. MFI seems to have hit bottom.

The next chart is GOOG's intraday hourly chart. If we're gonna get a positive day on Monday, we'd better go above the 10-hour MA. It acted as a barrier all day on Friday. Good things are that the MACD, MFI, and RSI are starting to turn up.

Now, let's continue with AAPL:

This is AAPL's daily chart, which looks quite good. We have the MAs curving up, and the 10-day MA is above the 20 is above the 30-day MA. It also stayed above the support at 88.7, and, the MACD is looking quite good.

On AAPL's intraday hourly chart, however, we see that the BBs are narrowing in. If AAPL is going to help in a rally on Monday, it'll need to go above 90 and catch the upper BB to push it open.

Now, the Nasdaq:

This is quite complicated. And, I'm going to choose to focus on the good things:

1) It successfully tested support at around 2342.

2) The 10-day MA is flattening, and, if we rally on Monday to above the 10-day MA, we'll have 2425 to look forward to, which is about where the 20-day MA is going to be.

3) The MACD has been trying to turn. Can it go positive?

So, as we are in a rough market environment, I'm going to try to take one day at a time, until we see clearly trend-setting signals. What I'd like to see is a strong Monday that brings Nasdaq above 2400, followed by a flat (hopefully, still in the green) Tuesday to wait for the Fed's decision. And, on Wednesday, if the Feds give hints that they would consider lowering the rate, hopefully, we can get a real rally going.